Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction
The Los Angeles Dodgers (17-12) tangle with the Chicago Cubs (12-16) in the second 7-inning game of a doubleheader Tuesday night at Wrigley Field. The opening pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Dodgers vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Trevor Bauer makes his seventh start for the Dodgers. He is 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA (40 IP, 11 ER), 0.68 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 this season.
- Last outing: Loss in 8 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K in L.A.'s 2-1 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday.
- Career vs. Cubs: 5-1 with a 1.13 ERA (39 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 0.93 WHIP and 10.7 K/9 in 6 starts.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster: 60 at-bats with a .233/.292/.350 slash line and 2 HR.
- Career at Wrigley Field: 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA (20 2/3 IP), 0.92 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 in 3 starts.
RHP Keegan Thompson makes his first MLB start for the Cubs. He was 10-10 with a 3.46 ERA (158 2/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 39 BB and 151 K in 29 starts and 6 relief appearances over three years in the minors.
He made his first relief appearance of the season Sunday against the Cincinnati Reds and pitched 1 scoreless inning with 2 H, 1 BB and 0 K.
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Dodgers at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
- Money line: Dodgers -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Cubs +220 (bet $100 to win $220)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (-140) | Cubs +1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 6 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Dodgers 5, Cubs 0
Money line (ML)
PASS because L.A. should hammer Chicago in this spot, but the Dodgers (-250) are a little more expensive than I'm willing to pay for an outright winner.
Pending the opening game of this doubleheader, the Dodgers won just three of their last 10 games and are just 2-5 against NL Central teams.
I'm not risking two-and-a-half times my return on a team with L.A.'s current form.
Bauer has been backing up his 2020 NL Cy Young campaign and subsequent huge payday with sheer dominance through the first month of 2021.
Statcast grades Bauer in the 92nd percentile in expected wOBA, 89th percentile in K% and 83rd percentile in chase rate.
Speaking of dominance, notice Bauer's numbers against the Cubs throughout his career. Chicago's lineup cannot hit him.
Everyone knows how awesome the Dodgers lineup is, but the Chicago lineup is mediocre given all the big names on the team. The Cubs are 14th in both BB/K rate and hard-hit rate and 16th in wRC+.
So, in an effort to avoid paying heavy vig, let's BET DODGERS -0.5 (-115) for the FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1.25 units.
Remember, this is a seven-inning game so I'm okay with giving up 2 innings to save 25 cents on the dollar for L.A.'s First 5 Innings run line.
PASS with a "lean" to the Under 6 (-115) because Bauer is on the hill for the Dodgers and the L.A. lineup has no familiarity with Thompson.
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